Bitcoin as Stable as Dollar and Oil Markets, Says New Research

New research published in a leading scientific journal says that Bitcoin has matured and is more reliable than before.


A Vote of Confidence for Bitcoin

Cryptocurrencies are considered as a highly volatile asset class. Bitcoin price in 2017 rose from $1,000 in January to nearly $20,000 in December before crashing back to $5,800 in 2018. Between these price points, there were multiple upward and downward price swings. Many investors have kept away from crypto markets given these wild swings.

However, recently published research in a renowned scientific journal, Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, portrays Bitcoin in a positive light, arguing that the world’s foremost cryptocurrency has matured. The research paper is titled “Bitcoin market route to maturity? Evidence from return fluctuations, temporal correlations, and multiscaling effects” and is authored by researchers at the Henryk Niewodniczański Institute of Nuclear Physics (IFJ PAN) of the Polish Academy of Sciences in Kraków.

Bitcoin price analysis

Analysis Conducted

The researchers studied Bitcoin price movement over the last six years (from 2012 through April 2018) and concluded that key statistical features of the digital asset are similar to those of established financial markets like fiat currencies, stocks, and commodities.

After analyzing graphs of Bitcoin’s price, the authors said:

Initially, the graphs we got were a bit crooked, which did not augur anything promising. But when we took a closer look at the data, suddenly it turned out that this crookedness originated from the first two years of the analyzed period, that is, from the time when the market was just starting to shape itself. Later on, the rates of return fluctuated according to the inverse cubic law [a statistical method to study financial market maturity].

Conclusions from the Study

Lead researcher Prof. Stanislaw Drozdz says:

The most important statistical parameters of the Bitcoin market indicate very clearly that for many months now it has met all the important criteria of financial maturity. It seems that in the case of other cryptocurrencies it will be possible to expect a similar transformation. If this happens, the world’s largest market, the Forex market, can look forward to very real competition.

The paper itself concludes:

[In] spite of its virtual nature and novelty, the Bitcoin market has recently and rapidly developed the statistical hallmarks which are empirically observed for all ‘mature’ markets like stocks, commodities or Forex. It appears plausible that other cryptocurrencies will follow the same trajectory.

Going by the findings of this interesting study, it can be assumed with confidence that we will experience less volatility in the price of Bitcoin going ahead. In fact, the finding correlates well with the actual price action over the last six months (the study looked at data until April 2018).

Do you agree with the conclusions of this research paper? Let us know in the comments below.


Images courtesy of Shutterstock.

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3 Cryptocurrencies That Could Outperform Bitcoin in the Medium-Term (GO, ICX, ETH)

ICOs were all the rage at the height of the 2017 crypto bull-run. However, with over 9 months in bear mode, most individuals have forgotten about them entirely. But with catalysts piling up in the short-term, cryptocurrencies that focused on ICOs could make a come back in Q4 of 2018 with GO and ICX leading the charge.


Cryptocurrencies Market Situation

There are literally catalysts piling up on top of catalysts from Yale’s investment in 2 crypto funds to Coinbase having more user sign-ups this year than last. BAKKT is expected to become a CFTC-regulated exchange, founded by the owners of the NYSE. Their first and primary product is Bitcoin Futures. However, the main difference being that each future contract will have to own and hold the underlying BTC associated with the contract.

Currently, futures are traded on the spot price at a specific time. This new platform creates a different market for BTC where traders must actually buy the underlying asset, namely bitcoin; hence the name ‘BAKKT’. This could lead to an immediate bull run for BTC and other cryptos as BTC’s circulating supply is consumed by futures traders.

Wall Street's Old Guard Has A Double Standard When It Comes To Bitcoin

With major catalysts seeming to be coiling the crypto market spring it is important to analyze what crypto niches and specific coins may provide the highest returns once a real bull market begins. ETH was one of the last cryptocurrencies to fall holding a value over $1,000 into February, and not surprisingly ETH and other ICO related coins (NEO, ICX and GO) have recently bottomed out as well; though they’re yet to recover like some other alts.

With a bull-run seeming imminent, however, GO and ICX are positioned as top candidates to produce major returns while NEO 00 and ETH 00 seem to likely lag due to their inflated market caps.

GoChain (“GO”)

 When compared to other platforms similar to Ethereum, GoChain is second to none. Their market cap is minuscule compared to the other coins on this list giving it significant room for upward momentum. With an $18 million market cap GO is a fraction of ETH and ICX. However, this is likely because of GoChain’s unfortunate timing of having an ICO in the middle of the bear market. Even in the turbulent bear market, they were able to secure a Binance, Bittrex, and Upbit listing.

So why is GO 00 superior to ETH or NEO? ETH has 13 transactions per second (tps) while NEO has 33. GO has 1300 tps. Their consensus mechanism is Proof-of-Reputation, which is vastly different than ETH’s Proof-of-Work and NEO’s dBFT.

On paper, GoChain’s team is one of the most impressive in the blockchain space. Their CEO, which I’ve had the pleasure of speaking to directly, was the former hedge fund manager in charge of over $250 million in assets. Travis Reeder, the CTO, has been building infrastructure and applications for the past 20+ years. He pioneered Iron.io which pioneered serverless cloud computing and 1 million tps.

Matt King is the head of Business Development and a former Harvard Undergrad and Yale Business School graduate who worked for Microsoft and Morgan Stanley. Ian Alexander, Head of Customer Success recently moved from IBM’s Hyperledger to GoChain. If this team is not impressive, there won’t be one in blockchain that ‘does it.’ Their advisory board is as impressive as their core team. However, their tech and tps are what will set them apart in the long run.

GoChain has one of the 3 fastest protocols with a live mainnet in the crypto space at 1300 tps. Transferring between exchanges routinely takes less than 2 minutes. Block times are every 5 seconds with fees of $0.001 per transaction. By the middle of 2019, this number is supposed to increase ten-fold to 13,000 tps. The first 5 projects (ICOs) have been announced on the GoChain platform and each will raise capital in the form of GO tokens (remember what happened when 100 ETH ICOs all took place?). Currently, 15 dApps are built on the GoChain platform with dozens more in the pipeline.

Recently, GoChain announced a partnership with Microsoft Azure to help drive enterprise adoption as GoChain is the only protocol that offers customer support services. GoChain also has their “TurboWallet” which is a P2P crypto payment system with a messaging app built by the GoChain team. Currently, the platform is deployed on Telegram and will be moving to other messaging platforms shortly.

With a team that is beyond ‘stacked,’ a market that seems to be building momentum, the highest tps of any live mainnet in the ICO space, partnerships with Microsoft (and others), listings at 3 top exchanges and a market cap under $20 million. Therefore, GO could see its valuation rise, particularly if overall market sentiment starts to recover. As the bear market has been coiling the crypto spring for 8+ months, coins like GO should be targeted if you believe in the future of ICOs. In my opinion, GO is likely to post the highest returns of any crypto described on this list.

ICX

“The Korean Ethereum,” was a great nickname, until Korean’s stopped trading due to regulations. However, this back and forth has taken place for a year and they’ve begun trading full force again. Their beloved ICX has yet to recover as many are expecting. ICX 00 has a market cap of $230 million, which is over 10 times that of GoChain’s. ICX’s market cap is still a fraction of NEO or Ethereum’s but is 1200% higher than GO’s.

ICX has made headlines recently by announcing they were going to use $5 million to buy back their ICX tokens from the market. If a team wanted to “show faith” in their project, how better to do it than actually buying back their tokens? Their team is South Korean based and they have the support of their country’s tech sector (even when the government is not completely cooperating). ICON’s blockchain works as an intermediary between blockchains creating an interoperability potential worth monitoring.

The financial tech company that founded ICX, Dayli Financial Group, is worth over $4 billion and many claim they are the owners of Coinone, a major Korean exchange. The purpose of ICX is a pivot platform that leverages dApps and incentive scoring to fill any gaps in a compatible blockchain network. ICX has a next level blockchain with a decentralized exchange embedded within it along with Artificial Intelligence actively running.

Even at 12x the market cap of GO, ICX is still far undervalued in comparison to ETH or NEO. ICX should see major gains with the Korean markets building steam and the overall crypto markets building momentum. ICON has a decentralized exchange for OTC exchanges, they were created by one of the largest financial groups in South Korea, and they are an ERC20 token that connects multiple community sidechains, enabling cross-platform data and value communication.

ETH

Ethereum 00 has taken a notable beating the last few months as many cryptocurrencies seemed to be turning a corner. With a market cap of $20 billion, this crypto has a market cap 100 times larger than ICX’s which has a market cap 12 times larger than GoChain’s. This is why when comparing ETH to the other 2 it seems as though both ICX and GO are likely to generate much higher returns than ETH. Ethereum was one of the most notable stories of 2017 and 2018 but with 13 tps, thousands of ICOs that already used your blockchain, and tech scalability concerns, traders are likely to see bigger returns from ICX or GO instead.

Vitalik Buterin

Their market saturation, penetration, and brand awareness are far greater than GO or ICX. The co-founder of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, is one of the most notable names in cryptocurrency. However, the technology supporting both GO and ICX was developed after watching the issues arise with ETH’s technology. This advantage in development timeframe could allow GO and ICX to leapfrog Ethereum when it comes to attracting ICOs in the future.

Nevertheless, ETH remains relevant as more and more ICOs continue to use their blockchain and raise funds in Ethereum. This is the predominant factor driving the ETH boom of late 2017, early 2018. However, now that ICOs have all but halted, the price of ICO related cryptos has also plummeted. ETH, having the highest market cap, took one of the worst beatings, falling from $1,200 to under $200.

Brand recognition and “Ethereum” awareness make ETH still exceptionally relevant. There are literally billions of dollars built into the Ethereum name regarding their community and presence in the crypto space. This value is “priceless” (well in the billions) and because of this, they remain the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

Pending a marking recover, ETH is likely to appreciate similarly to the rest of the cryptocurrencies in the space. However, smaller market cap coins with better tech, motivated teams, and well-founded partnerships should lead the charge as far as returns are concerned.

Waiting for the Market to U-Turn

GO seems to have the best technology with a live mainnet and the lowest market cap by far having completed their ICO in the middle of the bear market. With one of the strongest teams on paper and a market cap that is 12x smaller than ICX and 1200x smaller than ETH, they’re well poised for returns that would make the ‘moon’ seem close (Prediction 10x).

ICX will likely gain major momentum with the Koreans beginning trading again and the Golden Holidays having concluded in the East. The ‘Korean Ethereum’ is only hibernating. When it is awakened, a $1 billion market cap could be well in reach (Prediction 5x).

ETH, though already the #2 Cryptocurrency by market cap, should build momentum in the next few months as well. ICOs should pick up again once countries finalize regulations regarding their raising of funds. This will allow the “brand name” to pick up where it left off, leading the next wave of the ICO craze (likely “regulated” ICO craze). This new wave of ICOs will lead ETH higher, but not like the returns likely to be produced by GO or ICX (Prediction 2x).

[Disclaimer: This views expressed in this article do not reflect the views of Bitcoinist and should not be taken as financial advice.]


Images courtesy of Shutterstock

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Stellar, Litecoin, Cardano, Monero, TRON: Price Analysis, October 12

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.

In 2017, Bitcoin (BTC) was being projected as an alternative to gold. Many believed that with its unique properties, the leading digital currency would replace the precious metal as a preferred choice of investment when the markets enter a risky environment.

However, during the recent drop in the stock markets, cryptocurrencies were also sold aggressively. Does this mean that digital currencies will not be considered as a safe haven investment in the future?

Not likely. There have been many instances in the past when gold has faced aggressive selling along with the more risky assets. In 2008, even though gold was in an uptrend, it was initially sold off along with the other asset classes, only managing to find its footing in the last quarter of the year.

It’s too early to say that virtual currencies are not a safe haven investment and are doomed. Those who don’t understand the significance of the new technology are mostly the ones who continue to criticize it.

Others, including governments and a number of large corporations, are exploring options to use blockchain technology in various fields. Several prominent Universities’ endowments are investing millions of dollars into cryptocurrency funds.

After the recent steep fall on crypto markets, do the chart patterns predict an even deeper fall, or a sharp rebound? Let’s find out.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin nosedived Oct. 11, breaking below the support at $6,341. Though we would have expected a retest of the critical support zone at $5,900–$6,075.04, the bulls are currently attempting a pullback.

BTC/USD

If the bulls close (UTC time frame) above $6,341, the BTC/USD pair will again try to break out of the downtrend line of the descending triangle. The bulls will have to scale a slew of overhead resistances before the trend changes. A rally above $6,831.99 will indicate the start of a new uptrend.

A break of the $5,900 mark will trigger a number of stops, resulting in a sharp fall. Currently, the moving averages are flat, with the 20-day EMA showing signs of turning down and the RSI in the negative territory. This shows that the bears have an upper hand.

Therefore, we suggest traders keep their stops at $5,900. The next few days are critical and can shed some light on the future direction.

ETH/USD

The tight range bound trading in Ethereum has resolved on the downside and broke below the support at $200. The bulls are currently trying to bounce from $188.

ETH/USD

Both moving averages are turning down and the RSI is in the negative zone, which shows that the bears have an advantage. A break of the Oct. 11 intraday low of $188.35 can result in a drop to the Sept. 12 low of $167.32.

The ETH/USD pair will gain strength and show signs of a trend change if it sustains above $249.93. Until then, we suggest traders stay on the sidelines.

XRP/USD

Ripple broke below the support at $0.4255 on Oct. 11, triggering our stop loss. The price nosedived below the 50-day SMA and found support close to the 78.6 percent retracement level.

XRP/USD

On the upside, the zone between $0.4255 and the 20-day EMA will act as a strong resistance. The 20-day EMA has started to turn down and the RSI is in the negative zone, which shows strong selling pressure in the short-term.

If the bears break below Oct. 11 intraday lows, the XRP/USD pair might plunge to $0.26913, completing a 100 percent retracement of the recent rally. The first sign of strength will be a move above the downtrend line.

BCH/USD

The bulls are trying to keep Bitcoin Cash inside the symmetrical triangle. A break down of the triangle and the Sept. 11 intraday low of $408.0182 will resume the downtrend. The next support on the downside is $300.

BCH/USD

If the bulls succeed in defending the support line of the triangle, the BCH/USD pair will again attempt to rise to $530.

The 20-day EMA is starting to slope down and the RSI is below 50 levels, suggesting bears have the upper hand. We recommend traders keep a stop of $400 on their long positions.

EOS/USD

After clinging to the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle for three days, EOS tumbled on Oct. 11, breaking below both moving averages and the trendline of the triangle.

EOS/USD

The bulls are currently attempting to hold the $5 line, below which, a drop to $4.49 is possible. The traders can protect their long positions with a stop of $4.9. The EOS/USD pair will attract buyers if it breaks out of the overhead resistance zone at $6.044–$6.3117.

XLM/USD

The fall in Stellar hit our stop loss suggested at $0.21. The current pullback attempt might face resistance at the 50-day SMA and the 20-day EMA.

XLM/USD

The XLM/USD pair will invalidate the descending triangle pattern if it can sustain above the downtrend line. The failure of a bearish pattern is a bullish sign; hence, we might suggest long positions on a successive close above $0.26.

On the downside, any break below the Oct. 10 intraday lows can push the price towards the critical support of $0.184.

LTC/USD

From the midpoint of the range, Litecoin has declined to the bottom of the range of $49.466–$69.279. A break of the support can resume the downtrend and push the price towards the next support at $40.

LTC/USD

The bulls are currently trying to bounce from close to the $50 mark. $60 will continue to act as a resistance on the upside.

The LTC/USD pair will show strength if it can sustain above $69.279. Until then, volatile trading inside the range is likely.

The aggressive investors can wait for today’s close and buy a small quantity with the stops below $47. A conservative investor should wait for the break out of the range before attempting a buy.

ADA/USD

On Oct. 11, Cardano broke below the first support at $0.073531, but the bears have not been able to capitalize on the fall.

ADA/USD

Currently, the bulls are attempting to push the price back above $0.073531. If successful, the  ADA/USD pair will continue to trade inside the range of $0.073531–$0.094256.

If the bears thwart the attempt, the cryptocurrency can decline to the recent low of $0.060105. We can’t find any buy setups and are not recommending a trade on the pair.

XMR/USD

After days of tight range bound trading action, Monero broke down of the range on Oct. 11, triggering our suggested stop loss at $106. It is currently trying to bounce off the psychological support at $100.

XMR/USD

The previous support of $107.8–$112 will now act as a strong resistance. The XMR/USD pair will show signs of strength if the bulls scale above the moving averages.

If the bears defend the overhead resistance, a drop to the lower level of $90 is likely. Traders should wait for a new buy setup to form before attempting to get in again.

TRX/USD

TRON has broken down of both moving averages, which extends its stay inside the range of $0.0183–$0.02815521.

TRX/USD

Both moving averages are flat and the RSI has dipped into the negative territory, which shows that the sellers have an advantage in the near-term. If the bulls fail to scale the 20-day EMA, the probability of a fall to the bottom of the range will increase.

The TRX/USD pair will resume its downtrend if the bears succeed in sustaining below $0.0183. Traders should wait for a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above the range to establish new positions.

The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. The charts for the analysis are provided by TradingView.